Dear friends, followers of this blog.
It's been a week now since I've left Madagascar. I am back to the harsh Northern European winter, living in Amsterdam and interning with TNT. My current accommodation is a cruise ship turned into a student house, sharing a room with Robert, an old friend from Econosofia. I was stunned to meet around 40 Romanians in just one week here... and I sense there's an even bigger wave coming!
I will continue to reflect in writing on what's going on, and i will switch my postings to romanianreflections.blogspot.com
I welcome you there!
Cheers,
Laurentiu
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
GEP 2009 - applications are open!
The applications for the 2009 edition of the TNT Global Experience Programme are now open!
All readers from Dutch universities, students and fresh graduates, who are interested in having an experience like what this blog has described until now, should consider applying. An experience hopefully longer than mine and without security problems :) The website is www.tntgep.org, and the application deadline is the 26th of April.
Next year's countries are Madagascar, Zambia, The Gambia (! you'll find out why "the") and Tanzania. French will be required only for Madagascar, so don't worry if you are not fluent in Moliere's language. ;)
I hope that some of the followers of this blog will be among the applicants!
Veloma Madagascar! I'll be back someday!
All readers from Dutch universities, students and fresh graduates, who are interested in having an experience like what this blog has described until now, should consider applying. An experience hopefully longer than mine and without security problems :) The website is www.tntgep.org, and the application deadline is the 26th of April.
Next year's countries are Madagascar, Zambia, The Gambia (! you'll find out why "the") and Tanzania. French will be required only for Madagascar, so don't worry if you are not fluent in Moliere's language. ;)
I hope that some of the followers of this blog will be among the applicants!
Veloma Madagascar! I'll be back someday!
More detached from it all
As my departure approaches, I am growing more and more detached with this political deadlock that I don't quite understand. In the past 2 days the mayor has announced an ultimatum for the president: he has until next Saturday to resign, or else. The president, on the other hand, has not given any ultimatum but has simply announced that it is replacing the mayor from office. The mayor has announced his own successor, and today both the mayor and the president tried to put into office their new mayor. Crowds gathered again in support of the mayor, but until now no violence was reported. In the provinces the situation has been different, as the opposition has more support there. Standoffs with the army were reported, especially in Tamatave, the stronghold of the last president. Today an airplane was burned in Farafangana, when a minister was making a visit.
People interested in how the crisis develops should check the Malagasy news portal www.sobika.com (in French). I will not be able to make any more postings in the coming days, as I will be on my way to Europe. I will probably leave on Friday night, and the destination is Amsterdam. TNT has offered me to continue the last 2 months of my internship with them, at their head office in Amsterdam. So next week I will be back eating tons of raw haring and enduring strong humid winds on my bicycle. (no, I won't be delivering mail on a TNT bicycle... I hope :D )
People interested in how the crisis develops should check the Malagasy news portal www.sobika.com (in French). I will not be able to make any more postings in the coming days, as I will be on my way to Europe. I will probably leave on Friday night, and the destination is Amsterdam. TNT has offered me to continue the last 2 months of my internship with them, at their head office in Amsterdam. So next week I will be back eating tons of raw haring and enduring strong humid winds on my bicycle. (no, I won't be delivering mail on a TNT bicycle... I hope :D )
Monday, February 2, 2009
Mora mora
"Mora mora" means "slowly slowly" in Malagasy, and it is a national saying. Everything in Madagascar happens according to it, including a coup d'etat.
Me and my friends were saying every day, since the beginning of the turmoil: today is the decisive day. It's gonna go one way or the other. But reality proved us wrong. No day brought further clarifications, but further embroilment and intricacy. I was thinking Saturday would bring an end to the protests, with both sides coming to the negotiating table. Instead, on Saturday the opposition announced it is now leading the country. Sunday, of course, is a day of worship in this profoundly Christian country, so no unrest on this day. For today, all ministries were ordered closed by the new "de facto" leader, and he announced he would install himself at the Presidential Residence. Very weak statements from the sitting president made everyone think that the government had lost, the opposition had won.
So some friends, again, said that Monday is the decisive day. That on Monday we will see who is in charge, who has the support of the army. We will see if the Mayor succeeds in installing himself in power. But I was growing skeptical that Monday will bring any more clarifications, as decisiveness is not a defining trait of the Malagsy culture.
So what is going on today? Nothing so far. All ministries, banks, shops, schools, embassies open and functioning normally. One might be again tempted to say that it is all over, the government has won, the opposition has lost. But judging by the opposition shown all across the country towards the government, I think it is far from over. It is just a down-point in the tension, with a new climax coming up. If in other countries, where blood flows faster, a coup d'etat happens over a couple of days, here in the mora mora country it can take several months...
The situation in 2002 has taught foreign observers to prepare for periods of turmoil followed by periods of calm, false climaxes and resolutions, unpredictable events and outcomes. There are also people who don't draw any parallel to 2002: then changing the regime took 6 months, but there were no buildings burned and only 2 people died. Now, in just one week of nation-wide unrest, there were more than 100 people dead, and many buildings in the capital and the provinces were set on fire... I guess the best expectation is not to have expectations.
If all goes well, I'll be on an Air France flight out of here tomorrow. I'm sorry to leave this extraordinarily beautiful country, especially in such conditions, and I hope to return sometime soon.
Me and my friends were saying every day, since the beginning of the turmoil: today is the decisive day. It's gonna go one way or the other. But reality proved us wrong. No day brought further clarifications, but further embroilment and intricacy. I was thinking Saturday would bring an end to the protests, with both sides coming to the negotiating table. Instead, on Saturday the opposition announced it is now leading the country. Sunday, of course, is a day of worship in this profoundly Christian country, so no unrest on this day. For today, all ministries were ordered closed by the new "de facto" leader, and he announced he would install himself at the Presidential Residence. Very weak statements from the sitting president made everyone think that the government had lost, the opposition had won.
So some friends, again, said that Monday is the decisive day. That on Monday we will see who is in charge, who has the support of the army. We will see if the Mayor succeeds in installing himself in power. But I was growing skeptical that Monday will bring any more clarifications, as decisiveness is not a defining trait of the Malagsy culture.
So what is going on today? Nothing so far. All ministries, banks, shops, schools, embassies open and functioning normally. One might be again tempted to say that it is all over, the government has won, the opposition has lost. But judging by the opposition shown all across the country towards the government, I think it is far from over. It is just a down-point in the tension, with a new climax coming up. If in other countries, where blood flows faster, a coup d'etat happens over a couple of days, here in the mora mora country it can take several months...
The situation in 2002 has taught foreign observers to prepare for periods of turmoil followed by periods of calm, false climaxes and resolutions, unpredictable events and outcomes. There are also people who don't draw any parallel to 2002: then changing the regime took 6 months, but there were no buildings burned and only 2 people died. Now, in just one week of nation-wide unrest, there were more than 100 people dead, and many buildings in the capital and the provinces were set on fire... I guess the best expectation is not to have expectations.
If all goes well, I'll be on an Air France flight out of here tomorrow. I'm sorry to leave this extraordinarily beautiful country, especially in such conditions, and I hope to return sometime soon.
Sunday, February 1, 2009
Leaving Madagascar
Here is what I wrote last night, unable to sleep, with my decision just made:
My stay in Madagascar has taught me a few things about myself. For one thing, it has taught me I can be alone somewhere and enjoy it. But the past week has taught me a lot about decision-making. Things I read, and I rediscovered in myself during these tense days.
I have realised that decision-making is a mix of two things: gathering enough information and seizing the window of opportunity to act. There is no optimal point in this, as information can never seem enough and sometimes it is impossible to see when the window of opportunity will close.
Tonight, on the night of 31 jan / 1 feb , I am sitting and thinking about my departure. Two hours ago I was still gathering information, and I was determined to stay at least another week, to see which direction things go. But then I realised that the situation is pretty worrying, and leaving is the best thing to do. Even though nothing might happen for now, there is the possibility that if I stay long enough I might miss the window of opportunity to act. In case of a standoff between the government and the opposition - quite likely at the moment - roads to the airport may be blocked, and the airport itself may close, as it happened in the previous regime change in 2002. In addition to this, by the time I know this happens the whole foreigner community will know it too, and they might book tickets for a whole month. There are international flights to Paris, Johannesburg, Nairobi, Saint Denis and Port Louis. In case some of the 40,000 French citizens living in Tana alone decide that Madagascar is not such a safe place anymore, there will not be enough planes and boats to take them out of the country.
I read in Malcolm Gladwell's book "Blink" about it, and now it came back to me. Sometimes decisions are made in a split second, based on what we call "gut instinct", but they are by no means irrational. They take into account complex connections between facts that we might not consciously perceive. Even though they can be emotional, those emotions carry assumptions, generalizations, omissions, all of them crucial for decision-making. This is how we, as rational beings, filter out the unnecessary information, model the present course of action on past ones, and finally come up with an adequate solution.
Even if nothing happens, I know my decision tonight is correct because of the given circumstances. In life things happen from one day to the next, and even though some people want to wait for imminent signs, I prefer to be on the safe side. The benefits of staying are low - as there is little chance that I could work, but the costs of staying are high - uncertainty, restricted movement, shortages to name just a few. Like not buying fire insurance, in case disaster doesn't occur one should not congratulate himself for not making the effort to mitigate its potential effects. Risk management is not about acting when danger becomes imminent, but about prudence in trying to avoid it or in preparing for its consequences. It is always about knowing what you gain and what you lose by following a course of action and by taking on different risks. As we were reminded in the security briefing at the HQ in Rome, risk is a conjunction between the gravity of the threat and the probability of it to occur. When the threat is serious and the probability is medium, there is no point in waiting until the probability becomes certainty.
PS: The window of opportunity shows signs of closing: Kenyan Airlines has suspended flights to and from Madagascar until the political situation gets resolved, and an Air France ticket to Paris for Tuesday has skyrocketed above 3000 EUR.
My stay in Madagascar has taught me a few things about myself. For one thing, it has taught me I can be alone somewhere and enjoy it. But the past week has taught me a lot about decision-making. Things I read, and I rediscovered in myself during these tense days.
I have realised that decision-making is a mix of two things: gathering enough information and seizing the window of opportunity to act. There is no optimal point in this, as information can never seem enough and sometimes it is impossible to see when the window of opportunity will close.
Tonight, on the night of 31 jan / 1 feb , I am sitting and thinking about my departure. Two hours ago I was still gathering information, and I was determined to stay at least another week, to see which direction things go. But then I realised that the situation is pretty worrying, and leaving is the best thing to do. Even though nothing might happen for now, there is the possibility that if I stay long enough I might miss the window of opportunity to act. In case of a standoff between the government and the opposition - quite likely at the moment - roads to the airport may be blocked, and the airport itself may close, as it happened in the previous regime change in 2002. In addition to this, by the time I know this happens the whole foreigner community will know it too, and they might book tickets for a whole month. There are international flights to Paris, Johannesburg, Nairobi, Saint Denis and Port Louis. In case some of the 40,000 French citizens living in Tana alone decide that Madagascar is not such a safe place anymore, there will not be enough planes and boats to take them out of the country.
I read in Malcolm Gladwell's book "Blink" about it, and now it came back to me. Sometimes decisions are made in a split second, based on what we call "gut instinct", but they are by no means irrational. They take into account complex connections between facts that we might not consciously perceive. Even though they can be emotional, those emotions carry assumptions, generalizations, omissions, all of them crucial for decision-making. This is how we, as rational beings, filter out the unnecessary information, model the present course of action on past ones, and finally come up with an adequate solution.
Even if nothing happens, I know my decision tonight is correct because of the given circumstances. In life things happen from one day to the next, and even though some people want to wait for imminent signs, I prefer to be on the safe side. The benefits of staying are low - as there is little chance that I could work, but the costs of staying are high - uncertainty, restricted movement, shortages to name just a few. Like not buying fire insurance, in case disaster doesn't occur one should not congratulate himself for not making the effort to mitigate its potential effects. Risk management is not about acting when danger becomes imminent, but about prudence in trying to avoid it or in preparing for its consequences. It is always about knowing what you gain and what you lose by following a course of action and by taking on different risks. As we were reminded in the security briefing at the HQ in Rome, risk is a conjunction between the gravity of the threat and the probability of it to occur. When the threat is serious and the probability is medium, there is no point in waiting until the probability becomes certainty.
PS: The window of opportunity shows signs of closing: Kenyan Airlines has suspended flights to and from Madagascar until the political situation gets resolved, and an Air France ticket to Paris for Tuesday has skyrocketed above 3000 EUR.
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Coup d'Etat
What started out as political protests for democracy turned out into a real coup d'etat. The mayor of Tana, Andry TGV as he is called, has called a rally today in which he announced himself as the new head of Madagascar. He did not use the term "president", but "dirigeant". He had an army general by him, and apparently has its support. He said that from today he issues the orders in the country, and his first measure was to declare all ministries and banks closed on Monday. He has refused to meet with the sitting president until now. He said he will install himself at the presidential residence on Monday. The presidency has still not issued any statements, apart from that the constitution will be respected and security will be guaranteed.
The United Nations have entered Phase 2 - "alert" level. A bit too late in my opinion - and confirmed also by other UN people. Changing phases has strong political implications, signals to outside investors and tourists not to come to Madagascar anymore, and this is why it was postponed as much as possible. Phase 1 should have been declared after the first rally of the opposition, when they proclaimed they pursue regime change and they will organize regular such protests. Phase 2 should have been declared on Monday, when the general strike was in place and mobs were burning and looting around the country. In any respect, there is no way my project will be carried out under these conditions, and even my stay here is under question. Phase 2 measures include restricted movement of staff, and only essential staff coming to work. Already some colleagues are thinking of leaving for some weeks, to come back when things calm down and they can work. Tomorrow we will receive official instructions from the management about it.
The United Nations have entered Phase 2 - "alert" level. A bit too late in my opinion - and confirmed also by other UN people. Changing phases has strong political implications, signals to outside investors and tourists not to come to Madagascar anymore, and this is why it was postponed as much as possible. Phase 1 should have been declared after the first rally of the opposition, when they proclaimed they pursue regime change and they will organize regular such protests. Phase 2 should have been declared on Monday, when the general strike was in place and mobs were burning and looting around the country. In any respect, there is no way my project will be carried out under these conditions, and even my stay here is under question. Phase 2 measures include restricted movement of staff, and only essential staff coming to work. Already some colleagues are thinking of leaving for some weeks, to come back when things calm down and they can work. Tomorrow we will receive official instructions from the management about it.
Friday, January 30, 2009
Mixed feelings
Normal day today in Tana. Traffic jams in the morning, lots of people on the streets, going to work. All shops open. Nothing worrying in sight.
However, the foreign institutions and the international media are not convinced that this is a return to calm. UN agencies operate in an official Phase 1 but with security measures above that: work being reduced until 15:00 every day, with everybody sent home by WFP car; only essential staff coming to work, and only urgent movement of staff is permitted. From what the deputy country director told me today, food and gas shortages can be expected. Under these conditions, my project has not been approved to go further, unfortunately. It was a consulting project for WFP - developing a strategy for children in orphanages, making partnerships with other organizations and making recommendations on what programmes to implement. I hope it will get approved next week or so, and I hope the security situation will not be scaled up even more, to force "all unessential staff", myself included, to return home.
Yesterday I went back to my apartment in the center, to find a very calm atmosphere. I went around and shot pictures of the burned buildings, which I shall shortly upload on Facebook. Most shops were closed, though, and there was not too much traffic. Far from the idea of "ville mort", but still. Today, having the manifestation of tomorrow in sight, I will sleep again in the suburbs.
However, the foreign institutions and the international media are not convinced that this is a return to calm. UN agencies operate in an official Phase 1 but with security measures above that: work being reduced until 15:00 every day, with everybody sent home by WFP car; only essential staff coming to work, and only urgent movement of staff is permitted. From what the deputy country director told me today, food and gas shortages can be expected. Under these conditions, my project has not been approved to go further, unfortunately. It was a consulting project for WFP - developing a strategy for children in orphanages, making partnerships with other organizations and making recommendations on what programmes to implement. I hope it will get approved next week or so, and I hope the security situation will not be scaled up even more, to force "all unessential staff", myself included, to return home.
Yesterday I went back to my apartment in the center, to find a very calm atmosphere. I went around and shot pictures of the burned buildings, which I shall shortly upload on Facebook. Most shops were closed, though, and there was not too much traffic. Far from the idea of "ville mort", but still. Today, having the manifestation of tomorrow in sight, I will sleep again in the suburbs.
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